We know that burning aviation fuel advances global warming by producing GHG (Green House Gas), BUT, it also delivers what is called “global dimming” because the ice crystals which allow us to see jet contrails also reflect sun radiation back into space. Complexity yields uncertainty.
The global weather system is complex and how it will change with respect to the global warming that we all (except, apparently, Mr Trump) know is happening is difficult to predict in detail and fast enough. One of the problems with that is that by the time we are sure of something, it may be too late to do much about it. The evidence so far does not suggest that climate change causes hurricanes. However, it’s becoming more and more clear that a warming climate leads to more devastating hurricanes.
As far as UK farming is concerned, the implication is that winds generally will get stronger and storm winds will do more damage to crops. Wind breaks and stronger cereal straw are still likely to be part of the defence strategy. Wind turbines may be a better investment, too.
Bill Butterworth, Land Research Ltd, 3 October 18
We can expect stronger storms and, therfefore, increased lodging risk.
According to the World Resource Institute, Scientists suspect that human-caused warming can help explain why the latitude of where tropical cyclones reach their peak intensity has moved 53 and 62 kilometers poleward per decade in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively, away from the tropics. While there has yet to be any signal of migration of storm intensity in the Atlantic, this migration is occurring in other ocean basins, especially the Pacific and South Indian Oceans. Regions that are further away from the equator could see an increased risk of intense storms. On the other hand, those communities closer to the equator, which rely upon tropical cyclone rainfall as freshwater, could see threats to their water supplies.
Bill Butterworth, Land research Ltd, 29th Sept 18
There wlll be more high speed winds and more flooding as global warming progresses. provision to help water get away is prudent.
Over the next 2 or 3 entries on this blog, I shall be reporting, courtesy of the World Resource Institute, on high speed winds.
Scientists have known for years that global warming can exacerbate storms. But our understanding of the connection between hurricanes and climate change has evolved significantly in just the past year. Here’s what the cutting-edge science shows.
If storms hover above an area of land for long periods of time, they continue to dump rain, amplifying the risk of flooding. Very recent research has established a connection between warmer temperatures and the slowing of hurricane movement. A recent study in Nature found that from 1949 to 2016, the speed of tropical cyclones declined by 10 percent globally; North Atlantic tropical cyclones slowed down 20 percent over land areas during the same period. This slowing is part of the reason Hurricane Harvey caused so much damage when it stalled over Texas last year.
So, keep the field drains and ditches in order and let the rain get away – we can expect more of it.
Bill Butterworth, Land Research Ltd, 22 Sept 18